Today’s Fly Fishing:  

Yet another wonderful day here at lees ferry

There are a few more anglers here this week end taking advantage of this wonderful weather, and the great fishing.

Glen Canyon Dam Operations

The monthly release volume for September 2008 is scheduled to be 719,000 acre-feet.  During the months of September and October, releases from Glen Canyon Dam will be steady as described in the Final Environmental Assessment for Experimental Releases from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, 2008 through 2012 (EA). Beginning on September 1, 2008, releases from Glen Canyon Dam will be steady at 12,083 cfs and will remain at this level through the end of the day on October 31, 2008. The monthly volume for October 2008 that corresponds to this steady release rate is 743,000 acre-feet.

 

The water year release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2008 is being determined under the Equalization Tier of the Interim Guidelines. Under the Equalization Tier, the water year release volume in 2008 is being adjusted each month in order to target an end of water year elevation at Lake Mead of 1105 feet above sea level.  Based on system conditions as of August 26, 2008 and projected operations at Lake Mead for the remainder of water year 2008, the release volume from Glen Canyon Dam for September 2008 will be set to 719 kaf which corresponds to the steady release rate of 12,083 cfs. This adjustment is being made now in order to implement the steady flows which are to begin on September 1, 2008.

 

Upper Colorado River Basin Hydrology

Precipitation in the basin above Lake Powell was above average in July (150% of average). The overall precipitation in the Upper Colorado River Basin for water year 2008 so far has been 105% of average.  The unregulated inflow to Lake Powell during the April through July period was 8.84 maf (111% of average). Unregulated inflow to Lake Powell from now to the end of October is projected to be above average (106%). The long range outlook for water year 2009 projects that the most probable unregulated inflow to Lake Powell will be 91% of the 30-year average (1971-2000) however there is a wide range of uncertainty associated with these long range outlooks.

 

Upper Colorado River Basin Drought

The Upper Colorado River Basin is experiencing a protracted multi-year drought. Since 1999, inflow to Lake Powell has been below average in every year except water year 2005 and 2008.  In the summer of 1999, Lake Powell was essentially full with reservoir storage at 23.5 million acre-feet, or 97 percent of capacity. Inflow to Lake Powell in 1999 was 109 percent of average. The manifestation of drought conditions in the Upper Colorado River Basin began in the fall months of 1999. A five year period of extreme drought occurred in water years 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 with unregulated inflow to Lake Powell only 62, 59, 25, 51, and 49 percent of average, respectively. Lake Powell storage decreased through this five-year period, with reservoir storage reaching a low of 8.0 million acre-feet (33 percent of capacity) on April 8, 2005.       Drought conditions eased in water year 2005 in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Precipitation was above average in 2005 and unregulated inflow to Lake Powell was 105 percent of average. Lake Powell increased by 2.77 million acre-feet (31 feet in elevation) during water year 2005. But as is often the case, one favorable year does not necessarily end a protracted drought. In 2006, there was a return to drier conditions in the Colorado

River Basin. Unregulated inflow to Lake Powell in water year 2006 was only 71 percent of average.  Water year 2007 was another year of below average inflow with unregulated inflow into Lake Powell at 68 percent of average. Over the past 9 years (2000 through 2008, inclusive), inflow to Lake Powell has been below average in all but two years (2005 and 2008). Drought conditions have eased in water year 2008 with above average inflows to the main stem Colorado River reservoirs with the exception of Flaming Gorge and Fontenelle Reservoirs. Reservoir storage in the Colorado River Basin, however, is still below desired levels with the overall Colorado River system storage (above Lake Mead) projected to be about 58% of capacity at the end of water year 2008.  Reservoir storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead has decreased during the past 8 years but is projected to increase by the end of water year 2008. Current reservoir storage in Lake Powell is 61 percent of capacity. Storage in Lake Mead is 46 percent of capacity.

Fishing Synopsis and Forecast by Terry Gunn 9/13/08

Recent Fishing Conditions: Fall weather has arrived at the Ferry with mild temperatures and fair weather the norm. Current water flows are a steady (no rise or fall in level) 12,000-cfs and these flows are planned to continue through October. The steady flows are an experimental flow designed to test the hypothesis that steady flows might benefit the Humpback Chub. These flows are scheduled to occur in September and October, through 2012. Normal flows for this time of year would be fluctuating flows from 5,000-cfs to 10,000-cfs. The higher steady flows should be a real positive for the river and aquatic resource by keeping the “green line” at 12,000 cfs. The “green line” is the level in the river that the vegetation and aquatic organisms inhabit. This line is directly related to the lowest level that the river flows, which would normally be the 5,000 to 6,000-cfs level this time of year. By keeping this level at 12,000 cfs, the available area for the vegetation and aquatic organisms is dramatically increased. The steady flows should also allow increased survival of last year’s crop of baby trout; trout fry survive better in steady flows versus fluctuating flows.

Recent Fishing: The midge hatches have been prolific! This is a direct result of the lower flows. Despite the midge hatches, the best fishing has been found in deeper water. The water levels are perfect for wading most of the popular spots at the Ferry, however, the best fishing has been fishing out of the boat, drifting or anchoring the boat and fishing the deeper runs off of drop-offs or at the tail-out of riffles. The key to success is to stay over fish, get the flies down to the bottom, and get a long, perfect dead drift.

I recently heard the spawn this year was 10X normal. I have never seen so many fry and small trout in the river.

Lots of stuff happening at the Ferry and it is all good!

Important Note: Due to the higher than normal runoff conditions and the desire to equalize Lake Powell and Lake Meade, water releases were increased on April 14. The projected increase amounts to more than 600,000 acre feet of water to be released between 4/14 and the end of the water year in October. This means that water flows will be higher than normal for the months of April, May, June, and July. Steady flows are planned for September and October. Read below how I predict the increased flows will affect fishing.

The trout spawn began in early December which we have not seen in several years. It was a good strong spawn until the start of the experimental flow. Immediately following the high flow experiment the trout spawn began in earnest. It looked like every fish in the river was spawning at once and was the strongest spawn that I have ever witnessed. It was an inspiring sight…fish spawning everywhere and in areas that I have not seen them use in years. The spawn occurred in mostly deep water (up to 40-ft. deep!) with very little shallow water spawning taking place. The deep water spawn should translate into a “bumper crop” of fry and the survival rate will likely be off the charts.

Here is a quick overview and prediction.

The high runoff from the winter of 2007-2008 will provide the river with a huge nutrient load that will result in tremendous growth of aquatic organisms and plants (trout food).

The current trout population is healthy and the fish are larger than we have seen in years. These fish will grow rapidly to a larger size with the arrival of the nutrients and food. The current average 17-in fish should grow at least a couple inches and we have a bunch of fish that are bigger than that. We will see lots of 20+-in fish in the river next year.

The 2007-2008 spawn survival rates was substantial; the river is currently full of 7 to 8-in fish and the increased productivity of the nutrients should arrive just in time to stimulate growth of these juvenile fish. These fish will be 12-in and larger by this next fall and be catchable. The nutrient load should last at least a couple years even if next year’s snow pack is below normal. One strange phenomenon regarding juvenile fish at Lees Ferry is that once the fry reach 3-in long, they “disappear” until they reach 12-in and then suddenly they reappear and populate normal fishing lies. We’ll be seeing these fish this next fall and winter.

I have already told you about the trout spawn from this year. The number of trout fry will likely be off the chart and the survival should be good. The river conditions should be perfect for survival and growth of these young of the year fish and they will show up as 12-in or larger fish in the fall of 2009.

Higher water flows always provide better health and growth rates for trout at Lees Ferry. Due to the projected run-off and the desire to equalize Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the planned release volume from April to October is being increased from 8.23 million acre feet of water to 8.88 million acre feet which is an increase of more than 600,000 acre feet of water. This is the first time since 1997 that there has been a release larger than the minimum of 8.23 million acre feet. Lake Powell began rising early March and the final inflow increased the by 43-ft. So, why is this important for Lees Ferry? The streams that flow into Lake Powell (Colorado River, San Juan, and Green River) have been raging and stirring up all the accumulated sediment at the stream entrance. This sediment is nutrient laden and the suspended nutrients will be distributed throughout Lake Powell. All these nutrients will be transported and arrive in the river below the dam in a few months and the river will explode with algal growth and there will be lots of food for the fish. The last time this happened was 2005 and this set the stage for the dramatic increase in the health of the Lees Ferry fishery and aquatic food base.

For those of you that remember what the fishing was like in 1999 and 2000…you should be as excited as I am about what this higher water and increased nutrient load should do to the fishing at Lees Ferry.

The high flow experiment was basically a non event as far as the fishery is concerned. It came and went with few visible changes to the river or the fishery. For more details and to see my complete comments go here: http://coloradoriverconservancy.org/

For details on Lake Powell conditions and snow-pack, go here: http://lakepowell.water-data.com/

For a real time graphic view of water releases and ramp rates go here: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/uv?09380000

New guides at Lees Ferry Anglers. The last couple of years we have had several long time guide staff move on to bigger and hopefully better things. This year I’m proud to introduce 4 new guides, though new to our organization they are not new to guiding. Luke Blaser, Nick Gibb, Tom Jones, and JD Miller have joined our team. They bring with them a couple of decades of combined guiding experience on various waters around the world, college degrees, and an enthusiasm for guiding that is contagious. I’m proud to introduce these fellows and I’m sure that you will agree that they are a great addition to our team.

The AZ Game and Fish Department recently detected whirling disease in a small percentage of Lees Ferry trout that were collected for a random sampling. A recent sampling turned up no sign of the disease, which may mean that it was a “one time” exposure, where the disease was not established or that the disease is present but at a very low prevalence.  Anglers should still use caution in cleaning their equipment both before and after they have fished here or in other waters. For more information visit: http://www.whirling-disease.org

 

I have had some people that are fishing on their own (unguided) tell me that they are having a difficult time catching fish. The fishing has changed from the peak of 2000 and many people are not adapting to the new conditions. The current fish population is lower than it was in 2000 and there are not fish “everywhere” in the river like there were several years back (this is probably the reason that we are seeing better conditioned and larger fish today). Just because you might have been successful in one spot on the river in the past does not mean that particular spot is always good. There are many times of the year that the water flows, or conditions are not right to hold fish at “famous” spots such as 4 mile or Dam Island. It is often challenging, even for a good guide, to stay on top of where the fish are and what they are eating; but we do have the advantage of spending a lot of time on the water.    

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